Not party-generated
Authorities discount estimates produced by or for the notifying parties. Our research is independently produced and was not commissioned to reach a conclusion.
Merger control filings need independent market research — the relevant market defined, its size in value and volume, shares for the parties and each named competitor, and the source and basis of every estimate. Next Move Strategy Consulting builds that evidence to the specification of the form being filed, in any jurisdiction: historical series, segment-level share splits, concentration workings and a documented method.
Estimate the total size of the market for the last three years, in value and in volume, stating the source and the basis of the estimate.
Relevant market — share of value, FY25
Illustrative structure. Figures are not from any actual matter, and form references should be checked against current authority guidance.
The evidentiary tests
Commercial market research is written to inform a strategy deck. Filing evidence has to withstand a regulator's information request, the counterparty's advisers and, in enforcement matters, cross-examination. Six things separate the two — and they hold in every jurisdiction.
Authorities discount estimates produced by or for the notifying parties. Our research is independently produced and was not commissioned to reach a conclusion.
Forms require every plausible alternative product and geographic market, with reasons for accepting or rejecting each. We size the alternatives, not just your preferred frame.
A single year of shares says nothing about dynamism. Most regimes ask for three years; long-form filings ask for five. We build the series on one consistent definition throughout.
Shares move — sometimes decisively — between revenue and units. Where the two diverge, that divergence is usually the argument. We report both and show the reconciliation.
“Top five combined hold 62%” is not a share table. We provide named-competitor shares at the granularity the filing requires — including the five largest competitors for CCI Form I and the full competitor set wherever the theory of harm demands it.
The best dataset is useless if your licence forbids annexing it to a submission or sharing it with co-counsel and economists. Filing engagements ship under an enterprise licence.
Relevant market definition
Almost every contested filing turns on where the line is drawn. Move the boundary one product wider and a 42% share becomes 19%. Notification forms know this, which is why they ask you to set out every plausible alternative and justify the one you rely on. That work is research before it is argument — and it is where off-the-shelf reports stop being useful, because the relevant market in a case is rarely the market a commercial report was written about.
Customer groups and their procurement models, applications and specification constraints, switching costs, tender and framework structures, and which alternatives buyers actually put on the same shortlist rather than which ones look similar on a datasheet.
Manufacturers and service providers, spare capacity and how fast it can be redeployed, production and service footprints, route to market, the constraint imposed by imports, and which adjacent suppliers could enter at modest cost.
National, state, regional or catchment boundaries; transport and service-radius economics; regulatory, certification and language barriers; and whether pricing and tender outcomes actually move together across the area you are claiming as one market.
Where the evidence is thin, we say so. A range with the assumptions written down is worth more to a case team than a single figure with false precision behind it — because the assumption is what gets tested, and you want to have chosen it deliberately.
Global coverage
Notification forms differ in length, language and threshold. The market-facing sections ask broadly the same four questions everywhere: how is the relevant market defined, how big is it in value and volume, what share does each named participant hold, and how was that derived. Filter by region to find yours.
CCI
India
Form I over three years, Form II over five with HHI and CR4 pre- and post-transaction.
SAMR
China
Market definition and share evidence; forward share estimates for greenfield joint ventures.
ACCC
Australia
Mandatory and suspensory since 1 January 2026. Substantial-lessening-of-competition evidence.
JFTC
Japan
Domestic turnover thresholds; share and HHI evidence on the particular field of trade.
KFTC
South Korea
Share-based presumptions of competitive restraint make the share table decisive.
CCCS
Singapore
Voluntary regime with share-based safe harbours — shares determine whether you notify.
KPPU
Indonesia
Post-closing notification with market structure and concentration analysis.
PCC
Philippines
Relevant market definition and share evidence for notifiable transactions.
TFTC
Taiwan
Market share thresholds trigger filing; domestic share evidence required.
NCC
Vietnam
Economic concentration filings with combined market share assessment.
European Commission
EU / EEA
Form CO where an affected market arises at 20% horizontal or 30% vertical; Short Form CO below.
CMA
United Kingdom
Share of supply rather than market share — the description of goods or services is the battleground.
Bundeskartellamt
Germany
Domestic turnover and transaction-value thresholds; detailed national share evidence.
Autorité
France
National and local catchment shares — retail cases often turn on drive-time areas.
AGCM
Italy
National share evidence and regional cuts where the geographic market is narrower.
CNMC
Spain
Share-based filing trigger at 30% of a national or narrower market.
ACM
Netherlands
Turnover thresholds with market definition and share analysis on notification.
UOKiK
Poland
Combined turnover thresholds; national share and competitor evidence.
Rekabet Kurumu
Türkiye
Turnover-based filing with affected-market share evidence.
Konkurrensverket & Nordics
Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland
National share evidence, frequently at regional or catchment level.
FTC / DOJ
United States
Since February 2025, overlap descriptions, sales by overlapping product and top-ten customers.
Competition Bureau
Canada
Pre-merger notification with market definition, share and concentration evidence.
CADE
Brazil
Fast-track eligibility turns on shares — the share table decides your timetable.
COFECE
Mexico
Market definition, share and concentration index evidence on notification.
SIC
Colombia
Share-based exemption route; evidence needed to claim it.
FNE
Chile
Mandatory notification with relevant market and share analysis.
CNDC
Argentina
Notification with market definition and competitive-effects evidence.
GAC
Saudi Arabia
Economic concentration filings; share evidence in the Kingdom is routinely requested.
Competition Commission
South Africa
Competition plus public-interest evidence — employment and local industry effects.
COMESA CC
21 member states
Regional filing covering much of eastern and southern Africa in one notification.
ECA
Egypt
Pre-closing regime; market definition and share evidence required.
MoE
United Arab Emirates
Share-based and turnover-based triggers with relevant market analysis.
Competition Authority
Israel
Share-based filing trigger; domestic share evidence is central.
FCCPC & CAK
Nigeria, Kenya
National filings with market structure and share evidence.
FDI screening
EU, UK NSIA, US CFIUS, India Press Note 3
Domestic industry structure, supply-chain criticality and alternative-supplier evidence.
Foreign Subsidies Regulation
European Union
Market position evidence alongside financial-contribution reporting.
Trade remedies
Anti-dumping, safeguards, countervailing
Domestic industry size, import penetration and injury-period market data.
Sector regulators
Telecoms, energy, financial services, health
Market share and structure evidence for licence, tariff and consolidation reviews.
Market & sector inquiries
Any authority
Structural baselines and consultation-response evidence for market studies.
Damages & arbitration
Courts and tribunals
Counterfactual market paths, affected commerce and pass-on channel structure.
Where we sit
Counsel owns the legal strategy and the submission. Competition economists own the modelling, the diversion analysis and any expert opinion. What both need underneath is a defensible, independently researched view of market size, structure and share over time. That is the layer we supply — to the law firm, to the economics consultancy, or to a deal team running several of each across jurisdictions.
Third-party evidence for notification forms, responses to information requests, and market definition submissions.
Structured size and share series in Excel on a consistent definition, so your team can model rather than reconstruct.
Early antitrust risk reads before signing: where the overlaps are, how concentrated the market is, which filings are likely.
Two moments
The evidence comes from the same underlying model. What changes is the deadline, the granularity and who reads it.
Corporate development and deal counsel need to know, quickly, whether this transaction has a competition problem and roughly how big it is — before the price is agreed and before conditions precedent are drafted.
Also used by private equity teams assessing portfolio-level overlap before a bolt-on.
The filing team needs the same market built to the specification of the form, with the history, the named players and the documentation that lets a case team check the work.
Also the pack that gets extended when the authority comes back with an information request.
Screening first is cheaper. A screening study that finds a 40% overlap changes the deal structure; the same finding two weeks after signing changes the timetable. If you are running both, we build one model and cut it twice rather than starting again.
Reference table
The market-facing sections of the principal notification forms, and how many years of history each expects. This is a research-planning aid for scoping the evidence workstream, not legal advice — confirm the current form, guidance and filing route with counsel.
Scroll the table sideways to see all four columns.
| Regime & form | When detailed market data is triggered | Market-facing data the form asks for | Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| India — CCI Form IShort form | Combined share at or below 15% in horizontally overlapping markets, or 25% in vertical and complementary markets. | Market size in value and volume; party sales; shares of the parties and top competitors; customers and suppliers; all plausible alternative relevant markets with reasons for accepting or rejecting each. | 3 |
| India — CCI Form IILong form | Generally preferred where combined share is above 15% horizontally or above 25% vertically or in complementary markets. The CCI can also direct the parties to provide Form II information after a Form I is filed. | Everything in Form I over a longer window, plus HHI and CR4 before and after the transaction, entrants and exits in the relevant market, and the likelihood of future entry. | 5 |
| India — Green ChannelDeemed approval | No horizontal, vertical or complementary overlap across the parties, their groups and entities they control or hold shares in. | Evidence that no overlap arises under any plausible alternative market definition. The declaration is void if the position turns out to be wrong, so the market map has to be right first time. | Current |
| EU — Short Form COSimplified procedure | The simplified and full procedures use share, vertical-relationship and concentration criteria. We build the market evidence to test each plausible definition and document the basis for the procedure selected. | Market size and party shares under each plausible definition, main competitors, and the basis for claiming the simplified procedure applies. | 3 |
| EU — Form COFull notification | An affected market arises: horizontal combined share of 20% or more, or vertical share of 30% or more, upstream or downstream. | Market size in value and volume; shares for the parties and each competitor; entry conditions and recent entry; buyer power; capacity; supply and demand structure across all plausible definitions. | 3 |
| UK — CMA Merger NoticeEnterprise Act / DMCCA | Target UK turnover above £100m; or a combined share of supply of 25% or more; or the hybrid test — one party with 33% share of supply and UK turnover above £350m. | Share of supply calculations for the description of goods or services concerned, party and competitor shares, entry and expansion evidence, and the basis on which the description was drawn. | 3 |
| US — HSR FormForm in flux — confirm with counsel | For reportable transactions. Note: the expanded HSR form effective February 2025 was vacated by a US federal court in February 2026; the pre-2025 HSR form is currently back in effect pending appeal. Confirm the current filing form with counsel before submission. | Competitive overlap descriptions, sales by overlapping product or service, customer categories and the basis of competition. Confirm the current information requirements with counsel — the applicable form has changed since early 2025. | Current (plus five-year look-back on prior acquisitions under the pre-2025 form) |
| Australia — ACCCMandatory from Jan 2026 | Notification thresholds include Australian revenue and transaction-value tests, with additional thresholds for very large acquirers, creeping acquisitions and certain asset transactions. Mandatory and suspensory since 1 January 2026. | Evidence going to whether the acquisition would substantially lessen competition: market definition, shares, competitor set, entry and expansion, and the counterfactual. | 3 |
| China — SAMR2024 thresholds | Combined worldwide turnover above RMB 12bn, or combined China turnover above RMB 4bn, with at least two parties each above RMB 800m in China. | Relevant market definition and share evidence for the simplified and normal procedures; forward share estimates where a greenfield joint venture is being formed. | 3 |
| Other national regimes30+ authorities | Turnover, asset, transaction-value or share-based triggers, varying by jurisdiction and often by sector. | The common spine: relevant market definition with alternatives, market size in value and volume, named-participant shares, and the source and basis of each estimate. | 1–5 |
| Conduct casesDominance, cartels, damages | Any proceeding where market power, foreclosure or overcharge is in issue — including sector inquiries and follow-on damages claims. | Relevant market definition and shares across the whole conduct period; entry and expansion barriers; a but-for market path; price, capacity and channel structure over time. | Conduct period |
* HSR asks for sales data for the most recent year, with a five-year look-back on prior acquisitions in overlapping areas. Thresholds and form contents change frequently — treat every figure here as a scoping aid.
Scoping tool
Answer seven questions. The panel works out the likely route, the market data that route calls for and the scope that answers it — then hands you a brief you can send to us or forward internally.
Likely route
CCI Form II (long form)
Market data this route calls for
Recommended scope
What happens next
Send this brief and you get a representative sample plus a written scope — what will be sized, at what granularity, over what period — inside one working day. No transaction names needed to start.
Case types
Merger control is the largest share of the work, but the same underlying dataset does different jobs depending on the proceeding.
Pre-notification through Phase II
Market size and share series on every plausible definition; concentration before and after; entry, exit and expansion evidence; capacity and buyer-power indicators; and, where divestment is on the table, the standalone viability of the perimeter being carved out.
Section 4 · Article 102 · Chapter II
Share of the relevant market over the full conduct period rather than a single year; barriers to entry and countervailing buyer power; the constraint imposed by imports and adjacent channels; and the structural picture that supports or undercuts a dominance finding.
Leniency, follow-on claims, quantum
Market and segment size across the cartel period and the clean benchmark window; price and volume paths; channel structure for pass-on analysis; and the addressable commerce base your economists need to bound quantum.
Distribution, MFN, self-preferencing
Shares at each level of the chain, purchasing shares as well as supply shares, the split between direct and intermediated routes to market, and the size of the segment a restriction actually touches.
FDI, foreign subsidies, national security
Domestic industry structure and capacity, supply-chain criticality, the availability of alternative suppliers, and the applicant's position in the markets concerned — the evidence base FDI and foreign-subsidies regimes ask for alongside their financial disclosures.
Sector studies, subsidies, tariffs
Structural baselines for sector inquiries and consultation responses; domestic industry size and import penetration for anti-dumping and safeguard work; and the counterfactual market path where an intervention is being assessed.
Arbitration, valuation, IP
Market context for lost-profits and business-interruption claims, addressable market sizing for FRAND and royalty disputes, and third-party market evidence where a valuation assumption is contested.
Sector coverage
Aerospace & Defense, Agriculture, Automotive & Transportation, BFSI, Construction & Manufacturing, Energy & Power, Healthcare, ICT & Media, Materials & Chemicals, Retail & Consumer, and Semiconductor & Electronics — 2,000+ published titles across 40+ country markets. Filter for representative research; where the relevant market is narrower than anything published, we scope it as a custom study.
New installations, modernisation and maintenance treated as separate revenue streams — the split that decides the share picture.
Elevator and Escalator Market →National and state-level installed base, new-unit demand and service penetration.
India Elevator Market →Capacity by MW and by rack, operator-level shares, and the hyperscale versus retail colocation split.
Data Center Market →City-level capacity, land-bank pipelines and operator concentration for national and regional definitions.
India Data Center Market →Device-class segmentation, fab and fabless supplier shares, and end-application demand splits.
Semiconductor Market →Decorative versus industrial, resin-type segmentation and named-manufacturer shares by region.
Paints and Coatings Market →Flat and long product splits, capacity versus output, and import penetration for trade-remedy work.
Steel Market →Molecule and therapy-area level sizing, the API versus finished-dose distinction, and supplier concentration.
Pharmaceutical API and Formulation Market →Product-class shares, OEM versus aftermarket, and the commercial and residential split.
HVAC Systems Market →Powertrain and segment-level volumes, OEM shares, and charging infrastructure by operator.
Electric Vehicle Market →Active-ingredient and crop-level sizing with distribution-channel structure — the level most agri cases turn on.
Agrochemicals Market →Product-line sizing, provider shares and channel structure across retail and commercial segments.
General Banking and Financial Services Market →Generation, transmission and distribution equipment shares, plus utility-level demand structure.
Energy & Power coverage →Licence versus subscription revenue, deployment splits and vendor shares by customer size band.
ICT & Media coverage →Device-class sizing, installed base versus consumables, and procurement-channel structure.
Healthcare coverage →OE versus independent aftermarket, component-level shares and distribution structure.
Automotive coverage →National, state and regional definitions, plus city and catchment cuts where the geographic market is local.
EEA member states, United Kingdom, Switzerland and Türkiye — national and EEA-wide views.
United States, Canada and Mexico, with state and provincial cuts on request.
China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand.
GCC, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya.
Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru.
The evidence pack
Every filing engagement ships the same core set. Extensions are scoped against the form you are answering.
Market definition discussion, sizing, segment structure, competitive landscape and named-player profiles, written to be read by a case team rather than a marketing department.
The underlying series — value and volume, by segment, by year, by geography — in a structured workbook your economists can pivot and model against without re-keying.
How the market was defined, what was counted, which base data was used, how estimates were built and triangulated, and where the boundaries of the estimate sit.
An itemised list of the sources behind each table — statutory filings, customs and trade data, association statistics, government datasets and primary interviews.
HHI and CR4 computed on the share tables, before and after the transaction, on each market definition you are running — with the arithmetic visible, not just the result.
Time with the analyst who built the model, for written clarification of definitions, sources and method — including when a follow-up query arrives from the authority.
Licensing
This is the point most buyers discover late. A report you cannot annex, cannot send to your economists and cannot share with co-counsel in another jurisdiction is not filing evidence. Choose the licence around who will touch the document.
Internal reference and early-stage risk reads.
Deal teams working the matter internally.
The tier built for regulatory submissions. Tell us at scoping where the report will go and who will see it, and the specific rights are written into the licence.
We work under NDA on request and do not need to know the parties, the deal or the theory of harm to build the market. Where a scope would identify a live transaction, we take the brief at sector level and keep the engagement off client-facing collateral.
Tell us the market and we will tell you whether we hold a current commissioned engagement with a participant in it. Published syndicated research is independent of any party by construction — but you should know the position before you rely on it.
How it runs
Notification clocks do not pause for procurement. This is the sequence, with the timings we hold ourselves to.
Thirty minutes on the relevant market, the alternative definitions in play, the segment splits you need and the form you are answering. No deal details required.
Same day or next dayA representative sample plus a written scope: what will be sized, at what granularity, over what period, with which deliverables and which licence.
Within 24 hoursExisting coverage extended to your specification: three to five working days. A market built from scratch on a narrow definition: two to four weeks.
3–5 working days, typicalPost-delivery adjustments to alignment, definitions and cuts. If the authority comes back with a question on the market data, the analyst who built it is available to answer it.
Through the review periodQuestions we get from counsel
We can support market-evidence work across merger-control regimes worldwide. The market-facing sections of notification forms ask broadly the same things everywhere: how the relevant market is defined, how big it is in value and volume, what share each named participant holds, and how those figures were derived. We build that evidence for filings before the CCI, the European Commission, the UK CMA, the US FTC and DOJ, China's SAMR, Australia's ACCC, Brazil's CADE, Japan's JFTC, Korea's KFTC, Canada's Competition Bureau, Saudi Arabia's GAC, South Africa's Competition Commission, COMESA and 30-plus other regimes. The practical constraint is usually data availability in the relevant market, not the jurisdiction.
Independent third-party market data is commonly used as supporting evidence in merger control work, and most notification forms expressly ask filers to state the source and basis of every estimate. Three things determine whether a given report is usable: it is independent of the parties, its method is written down and can be defended, and the licence permits you to file and share it. How the evidence should be presented in a specific filing is a question for counsel.
Three years is the common baseline — India's Form I, the EU Form CO and most national regimes work on that window. Long-form filings ask for more: India's Form II requires five years of market size, party and competitor shares, plus HHI and CR4 before and after the transaction. The US HSR form works differently again, asking for sales in the most recent year for each overlapping product together with a five-year look-back on prior acquisitions. If you are filing in more than one place, build to the longest window in the set.
Yes, and this is most of the filing work. The relevant market in a case is rarely the market a commercial report was written about — it is a product, application, customer group or catchment defined by the theory of harm. We build those bottom-up from company disclosures, statutory filings, customs and trade data, official statistics, association figures and primary interviews. Where the evidence base is thin, the assumptions and the confidence range go in the methodology annex rather than getting buried.
Yes, and it is the main reason cross-border deal teams call us. Inconsistent share figures across filings get noticed by case teams who talk to each other. We build one model on one market definition and cut it per jurisdiction — national, regional and EEA-wide views of the same underlying data, with the differences explained rather than accidental.
Yes. Pre-signing screening is a faster, lighter engagement: where the parties overlap product by product and geography by geography, indicative combined shares on each plausible definition, and the likely filing route in each jurisdiction. It is the cheapest point at which to discover a problem, and if the deal proceeds the same model is extended into the filing pack rather than rebuilt.
Form II is generally preferred where the parties' combined share exceeds 15% in a horizontally overlapping market, or 25% in a vertically linked or complementary market. It extends the historical series from three years to five, adds CR4 alongside HHI before and after the transaction, and requires evidence on entrants, exits and the likelihood of future entry. The CCI can also direct the parties to provide Form II information after a Form I has been filed — which is a good reason to build the five-year series up front.
A single-user licence permits internal use by one named individual only. If the report will be annexed to a filing, submitted to an authority, or shared with co-counsel, economists or the counterparty's advisers, you need an enterprise licence built for external distribution. Where a matter runs across firms and jurisdictions, enterprise is effectively the only workable option, and the specific rights are written into the licence at scoping.
Yes, and it is usually the most valuable part of the engagement. Forms require you to set out every plausible alternative product and geographic market and to justify accepting or rejecting each. We size the alternatives so the choice is evidenced rather than asserted, and so you can see in advance where the share position is fragile.
An existing report extended with a longer historical series and additional share splits typically takes three to five working days from confirmation. A market built from scratch on a narrow relevant market takes two to four weeks. If a notification deadline is already running, say so on the first call and we will tell you honestly what is achievable.
No. We are the data layer beneath your economists, not a substitute for them. We supply market size, share and definition evidence, a written methodology annex, a source register and named analyst availability for written clarification of sources and method. Economic modelling, submissions and testimony sit with your competition economists.
Yes. Foreign investment screening, the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation, sector regulators, public procurement reviews and trade remedy proceedings all turn on the same underlying evidence: market size, domestic industry structure, import penetration, participant shares and the counterfactual. The framing changes; the research does not.
We sign NDAs on request and do not require the identity of the parties or the transaction to build a market. Before scoping we will confirm whether we hold a current commissioned engagement with a participant in the market concerned, so you can assess independence before you rely on the work. Engagements are not referenced in client-facing material without written consent.
Talk to us
No deal details needed to start — a sector, a geography and a deadline is enough. Whether you are screening overlaps before signing or building the evidence pack for a filing in one jurisdiction or twelve, you will have a sample and a written scope inside a working day.
Email
[email protected]
Phone
+1 857 758 5017
Next Move Strategy Consulting provides market research and data. Nothing on this page is legal advice, and thresholds and form requirements change — confirm the current position with your competition counsel.
Filing clock running, or screening before signing? Sample and written scope inside a working day.
Talk to an analyst Build a brief