How the market estimates and forecasts were built.
Compass combines structured market definition, secondary research, primary validation, dual-method market sizing, driver-based forecasting, and multi-level quality assurance. The framework is designed to make each published estimate traceable, comparable, and repeatable.
A systematic workflow designed to prevent double counting, reconcile conflicting inputs, and produce defensible market estimates. Later-stage findings can trigger re-validation at earlier stages.
Define the product or service boundary, eligible end-use segments, geographic coverage, customer type, and value-chain boundaries before sizing begins. Scope-control rules are used to prevent overlap and double counting.
Build the factual backbone from a structured source hierarchy covering government data, company filings, trade associations, paid databases, academic sources, and carefully screened secondary reporting.
Use structured interviews, surveys, channel checks, distributor inputs, procurement intelligence, and project pipelines to test assumptions and validate near-term market signals that public data may not capture.
Compare demand-side signals such as project pipelines and procurement with supply-side signals such as vendor revenues, production capacity, and trade flows. Material discrepancies trigger reconciliation.
Run both methods independently. Top-down allocates macro value into segments through penetration and share assumptions; bottom-up aggregates company revenues, product volumes, pricing, and regional demand.
Use multiple statistical and scenario techniques to construct base, optimistic, and conservative outcomes, with explicit assumptions tied to macroeconomic, regulatory, technology, and market drivers.
Complete source checks, outlier testing, historical consistency checks, peer review, and benchmark validation before publication. Material market events can trigger interim revisions.
Compass uses a layered source strategy rather than treating a single dataset as authoritative. Sources are evaluated for credibility, recency, geographic coverage, relevance, and methodological transparency.
National statistical agencies, trade ministries, central banks, World Bank, IMF, OECD, customs authorities, and other public institutions used for macroeconomic baselines, production, trade, and policy context.
Tier 1 PrimaryAnnual reports, regulatory filings, investor presentations, earnings materials, and corporate disclosures used for segment revenue, pricing, capex, company exposure, and competitive benchmarking.
Tier 1 PrimaryDirect expert interviews, channel checks, distributor intelligence, procurement patterns, project pipelines, and other primary inputs that test assumptions and add market context unavailable from published data.
Tier 1 InternalVerified commercial databases and NMSC research archives can support cross-industry benchmarking, historical series, and model calibration where they add incremental evidence.
Tier 2 VerifiedCompass runs top-down and bottom-up approaches independently and then reconciles the results. The published estimate represents the validated convergence point after coverage, pricing, segment, and timing differences are investigated.
Starts with macro-level indicators such as industry output, sector expenditure, parent-market revenue, penetration rates, activity splits, and verified spend ratios. Value is allocated progressively into the defined market boundary.
Coverage gaps, pricing discrepancies, segment classification, geography, timing and channel effects are investigated before the final estimate is accepted.
Aggregates company revenues, product volumes, project values, regional demand blocks, or other ground-level inputs using a volume × price or revenue aggregation framework.
Rather than relying on one forecasting technique, Compass can combine multiple statistical approaches according to the market's data history, seasonality, structural drivers, and forecast horizon.
For markets with meaningful historical data and, where relevant, recurring seasonal behavior.
Links market behavior to independent drivers such as GDP, industrial output, commodity pricing, and policy indicators.
Weights recent observations more heavily when structural transitions make recent trends more informative.
Generates probability distributions across repeated input combinations where uncertainty must be explicitly represented.
Reduces short-term volatility and helps isolate the underlying trajectory in cyclical or commodity-linked markets.
Uses installed base, replacement cycles, utilization, and asset turnover where those variables drive demand.
Allows for slower adoption, adverse regulation, macro headwinds, pricing pressure, or competitive displacement.
Reflects the current evidence set, validated expert inputs, historical behavior, and documented forward assumptions.
Allows for faster adoption, policy tailwinds, new demand pools, or technology-driven acceleration beyond the base case.
Every Compass market profile establishes explicit product/service, end-use, geographic, and value-chain boundaries. The purpose is to keep comparisons consistent across markets, regions, and time periods.
Compass treats QA as a publication gate rather than a final formatting step. Source validation, reconciliation, peer review, outlier testing, and version control are built into the workflow.
Check source authenticity, relevance, timing, base-year conventions, geography, unit definitions, and currency normalization before inputs enter the model.
Cross-check direct evidence against derived model outputs and independent validation inputs. Material deviations trigger re-estimation or explicit explanation.
Review segmentation logic, market boundaries, exclusions, and market-specific assumptions for category or scope errors.
Review historical consistency, statistical outliers, analogous markets, and assumption logic before final submission.
Final approval is followed by a version-controlled release. Interim updates can be triggered by material M&A, regulatory, technology, or macroeconomic events.
Methodological transparency requires explicit assumptions. Individual Compass markets can carry additional conventions that are stated within the market profile.
| Assumption Category | Standard Convention |
|---|---|
| Macroeconomic baseline | Macro assumptions follow the best available official or institutional outlook at the time of publication unless market-specific analysis overrides them. |
| Currency & inflation | Currency, base-year, and inflation conventions are stated in each market profile. Volume-based markets are not mechanically inflated into nominal value growth. |
| Regulatory environment | Base cases reflect enacted or observable policy conditions. Proposed changes are treated separately unless there is sufficient evidence to incorporate them. |
| Technology trajectory | Adoption is calibrated to available market evidence and analogous historical patterns. Emerging technologies with limited evidence are explicitly treated as higher-uncertainty scenarios. |
| Market structure | Competitive conditions are assumed to evolve according to observable evidence; major disruption requires supporting evidence such as new entrants, platform shifts, acquisitions, or regulatory intervention. |
Common questions about how Compass market intelligence is constructed, validated, forecast, and maintained.
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