Key Takeaways
- Prices and revenue moved together. Global DRAM industry revenue rose from $27.01 billion in 1Q25 to $154.73 billion in 2Q26, about 5.7 times (NextMSC calculation from reported quarterly figures).
- The 1Q26 price event was the sharpest in the tracker. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose 45–50% in 4Q25 and 93–98% in 1Q26 (both reported retrospectively), which compounds to roughly 2.8 to 3.0 times over two quarters (NextMSC calculation).
- Outlook: increases continue, at a slower pace. The latest public forecast, published 30 September 2026, calls for conventional DRAM up 10–15% and NAND Flash up 15–20% quarter on quarter in 4Q26.
- Consumer devices are absorbing the cost. IDC reported 2Q26 global smartphone shipments of 276.3 million, down 7.4% year on year, while supply remains skewed toward server DRAM, HBM and enterprise SSDs.
Market Pulse: From Inventory Correction to a Supply Squeeze
The memory market changed character three times in 21 months. In 1Q25 it was in a cyclical downturn: DRAM revenue fell 5.5% to $27.01 billion and top-five NAND revenue dropped nearly 24% to $12.02 billion. By 3Q25–4Q25 it had tightened on AI-server demand and end-of-life transitions for older DRAM; in 2026 it became a broad cost and supply shock.
WSTS reports first-half 2026 global semiconductor sales of $702 billion, up 102% year on year, with memory the fastest-growing segment at +305%. For readers following the wider semiconductor market, memory is now the swing factor in industry growth. Omdia forecasts memory at more than half of 2026 semiconductor revenue.
What changed
The driver shifted from inventory to allocation. Suppliers prioritise HBM, high-capacity server DRAM and enterprise SSDs, and TrendForce describes DRAM inventories as historically low by 2Q26, which removes the usual buffer against price rises.
Original Data Table: Quarterly Price Tracker
The table sets each quarter’s price range beside its status. A forecast is not an outcome, and NAND price bases change between quarters, so compare NAND rows with care.
Source: TrendForce price releases and NextMSC analysis. "Reported retrospective" marks outcomes published after the quarter; "Forecast" marks ranges published before or during it.
Conventional DRAM Price Change by Quarter (QoQ %, low–high range)
Gold = forecast; navy = reported retrospective. Solid bar = near end of range; lighter bar = far end. Conventional DRAM contract price basis throughout; 4Q26 is a forecast.
NAND Flash (Overall) Price Change by Quarter (QoQ %, low–high range)
NAND Flash overall basis, 3Q25–4Q26; all forecasts or revisions. Solid bar = low end; lighter bar = high end.
Reading the quarters
1Q25 to 2Q25: correction and turn. Conventional DRAM was forecast down 8–13% in 1Q25 and between -5% and flat in 2Q25. DRAM revenue rose 17.1% to $31.63 billion and top-five NAND revenue rose 22% to $14.67 billion, with volume recovering before price.
3Q25: the first forecast rise. Conventional DRAM was forecast up 10–15% on AI demand and DDR4/LPDDR4X end-of-life restocking. DRAM revenue reached $41.4 billion (+30.9%) and top-five NAND about $17.1 billion (+16.5%).
4Q25: shortage. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose 45–50% and revenue climbed 29.4% to $53.58 billion. Top-five NAND revenue rose 23.8% to $21.17 billion on enterprise SSD demand and hard-disk shortages.
1Q26: the sharpest quarter. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose 93–98% and revenue reached $97 billion (+81%). The NAND figure, +85–90%, is the latest forecast revision; no later actual was found.
2Q26 to 4Q26: rising, but slower. DRAM forecasts step down from +58–63% (2Q26) to +13–18% (3Q26) and +10–15% (4Q26). NAND steps down to +10–15% in 3Q26, then rises to +15–20% in 4Q26 as enterprise SSD demand accelerates.
Revenue Signals: What Suppliers Actually Reported
Price ranges are estimates; revenue is reported. DRAM is whole-industry revenue and NAND is top-five suppliers only, so the two series should not be added together.
DRAM Industry Revenue by Quarter, 1Q25–2Q26 ($ billion)
All-market DRAM industry revenue as reported; the latest reported quarter is highlighted. Historical data through 2Q26.
Top-Five NAND Supplier Revenue by Quarter, 1Q25–4Q25 ($ billion)
Revenue of the top five NAND suppliers, not total NAND industry revenue; the latest reported quarter is highlighted.
DRAM revenue rose every quarter, with the largest gains in 1Q26 (+81%) and 2Q26 (+59.5%). Top-five NAND revenue rose 76% from 1Q25 to 4Q25 (NextMSC calculation), against about +98% for DRAM.
Global Semiconductor Sales, 4Q25–2Q26 ($ billion)
Quarterly global semiconductor sales as reported by SIA; broader demand context, not memory-only. The latest quarter is highlighted.
Global semiconductor sales rose from $236.6 billion in 4Q25 to $403.3 billion in 2Q26, about 1.7 times (NextMSC calculation). Memory is the steepest part of that upswing.
Demand and Supply: Why Allocation Matters More Than Volume
Demand
AI infrastructure drives demand from 3Q25: cloud providers and AI-server builders bought HBM, high-capacity RDIMMs and enterprise SSDs, with hyperscaler capacity locking in 1Q26. IDC reported that PC and smartphone vendors front-loaded shipments in 4Q25 ahead of price rises, and lower-end devices are most exposed. Global smartphone shipments fell 6% year on year in 1Q26 (Counterpoint) and 7.4% in 2Q26 (IDC).
Supply
Supply responds with a lag. Suppliers shifted capacity toward HBM in 3Q25, DRAM inventories tightened sharply in 4Q25, and by 2Q26 incremental supply was prioritised for server and HBM. In NAND, production cuts supported balance in 2025 and hard-disk shortages added flash demand.
TrendForce’s 3Q26 outlook notes that U.S. cloud-provider long-term agreements cap some server DRAM increases, which suggests large buyers have more price protection than smaller device makers.
Supply Response: Capex, Fabs and Policy
SEMI puts 2026 DRAM equipment spending at about $37 billion (+29%) and 3D NAND at about $14 billion (+28%), but notes that migrations moderate effective capacity growth. Its March 2025 forecast had 2026 DRAM spending at $25 billion; the two are different forecast vintages.
The U.S. Department of Commerce said in June 2025 that Micron plans $200 billion of U.S. manufacturing and R&D investment, plus $275 million of additional CHIPS funding, on top of up to $6.165 billion announced in December 2024. U.S. export controls on advanced computing, equipment and HBM remain a structural factor. These are announced plans and do not change supply in the quarters covered here.
Company Response: Vendor Read-Through
Company results corroborate the tracker. Micron’s DRAM revenue rose to $31.3 billion in fiscal 3Q26 (ASP up in the low 60s percent) and NAND revenue to $9.9 billion (+99%); FY26 revenue was $133.188 billion with capex of $27.367 billion. Samsung reported record memory revenue and operating profit in 2Q26, and SK hynix revenue rose about 3.6 times from 2Q25 to 2Q26 (NextMSC calculation).
Source: Micron, Samsung and SK hynix results and NextMSC analysis. Micron uses fiscal quarters; Samsung and SK hynix use calendar quarters. 3Q26 official results were not yet available.
Most of the revenue gain came from price: Micron’s DRAM bit shipments rose only low single digits in both quarters shown while ASPs rose in the 60s.
Spot Prices: A Separate Signal
TrendForce’s spot pages (updated 28 September 2026) show session changes of about 1.2% to 4.8% for most DRAM and NAND items, with SLC NAND flat. Spot prices are not comparable with contract ranges; the spot-contract spread is the signal to watch.
Source: TrendForce spot price pages and NextMSC analysis. Session averages as shown on 28 September 2026; units are as listed by the source.
Implications for Industry Stakeholders
PC, smartphone and appliance makers
Lower-end devices carry the most exposure, and shipment volumes already show it. Treat the 4Q26 forecast as a direction, not a price.
Cloud and AI infrastructure buyers
Enterprise SSD demand is expected to accelerate and server DRAM stays undersupplied. Long-term agreements shield buyers from price, not from allocation risk.
Memory suppliers and equipment vendors
Capex is rising, but new capacity takes time to qualify and ramp. NextMSC expects relief to be lagged; this is interpretation, not a forecast of any quarter.
Methodology and Data Note
The evidence window is 1 January 2025 to 7 October 2026. Sources are ranked: official company and government releases, then WSTS, SEMI and SIA, then IDC, Counterpoint and Omdia, with TrendForce for contract prices. Forecasts are never relabelled as actuals, and DRAM contract ranges, NAND ASPs and spot prices are not combined.
NAND revenue is top-five supplier revenue. Micron keeps fiscal-quarter labels. NextMSC calculations use reported figures on the same basis. Data cut-off: 7 October 2026. Planned refresh: quarterly. Corrections: contact NextMSC research.
Conclusion: What the Quarterly Data Show
The 2025–2026 memory cycle is a story of capacity allocation more than demand alone. AI infrastructure is absorbing advanced memory and storage capacity, while conventional and consumer segments compete for the rest.
The latest outlook still points up (DRAM +10–15%, NAND +15–20% in 4Q26), but DRAM is decelerating from the 93–98% peak of 1Q26. Prices may ease without returning quickly to early-2025 levels.
Project Dataset Explorer
Filter the quarterly tracker, revenue, vendor, spot-price and supply datasets compiled for this report. The Excel workbook also includes the demand-supply matrix, sources and methodology.
Outlook: What to Monitor
NextMSC analysis, not a forecast. Watch: the spot-contract spread; PC and smartphone volumes; enterprise SSD and AI-server demand; capex and cleanroom timing; HBM versus conventional DRAM allocation; and trade policy. Official 3Q26 results from Samsung and SK hynix will test whether DRAM price deceleration shows up in revenue.
About the Author
Debashree Dey
— Debashree Dey is Assistant Manager at Next Move Strategy Consulting, where she supports cross-vertical market content and communications across diverse industries for 6 years. Her professional background includes senior content writing, communications, and published manuscript authorship, with experience developing audience-focused business narratives and maintaining clear, consistent messaging. Her role supports research-led content development and editorial quality across NextMSC publications.
About the Reviewer
Supradip Baul
— Supradip Baul is an accomplished business consultant and strategist with over a decade of rich experience in market intelligence, strategy, technology, and business transformation. His work has included rigorous qualitative and quantitative analysis across multiple industries, helping clients shape investment decisions and long-term roadmaps. Earlier in his career, he was associated with Gartner, where he contributed to industry-leading reports and market share analyses. He has worked with leading global companies and holds an MBA with a dual specialization in Marketing and Finance.