EV vs. Petrol Car Ownership Costs in 2026: Total Cost Comparison by Country

About This Research

Electric cars carry higher purchase prices than their petrol and diesel equivalents in most markets, so whether they are cheaper to own depends on what happens after the sale: energy costs, tax, depreciation, maintenance and incentives. Those inputs differ sharply by country, which means a single "EVs are cheaper" or "EVs are costlier" answer is wrong for most readers. This report compares battery-electric (BEV) and internal-combustion (ICE) running cost per kilometre in 29 countries, explains what the tax and incentive regimes in each place contribute, and then tests the result against the 2026 fuel-price shock.

The evidence is kept in three layers: a country-level fleet benchmark from Ayvens (Q4 2025), IEA analysis of payback periods and fuel savings, and current fuel-price data from the U.S. EIA and GlobalPetrolPrices. The layers use different assumptions and are never merged into one number.

Market Pulse Metrics

At-a-glance benchmarks, each traceable to a named source.

Sources: Ayvens European Mobility Guide (May 2026); IEA (June 2026); U.S. EIA (release of 29 Sep 2026); NMSC analysis.
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/ev-vs-petrol-total-cost-by-country-2026

Executive Summary

The core finding is that ownership economics split along geography. In Ayvens' Q4 2025 benchmark, a BEV is cheaper per kilometre than its petrol or diesel equivalent in 15 of the 29 countries where both costs are published, level in Greece, and costlier in 13. The 13 are concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe, plus Serbia and Ukraine. All 13 sit in Ayvens' lower two EV-maturity categories. Ayvens itself describes the pattern as BEV total cost being beneficial in Northern and Western Europe while Eastern countries lag.

The second finding is that incentives alone do not explain the map. Hungary does not apply registration, property or company-car tax to BEVs, and Lithuania paid a €5,000 new-BEV bonus in 2025, yet ICE is cheaper in both. Denmark scores 0 of 20 on Ayvens' taxation-and-regulation pillar, with a BEV registration tax that is rising, and still shows a 19% BEV advantage. In NMSC's reading, the level of the ICE cost matters as much as the BEV cost: Denmark has the highest ICE figure in the dataset (€0.52 per km) and Poland the lowest (€0.25).

Why this matters for planning: the benchmark is a Q4 2025 leasing-fleet view and predates the 2026 energy crisis. The IEA estimates that EU annual fuel savings from EVs in April 2026 were 35% above 2025 levels, so the direction of change favours BEVs, but these sources do not allow a country-by-country recalculation.

What the Cost Comparison Measures

Ayvens' benchmark compares a basket of BEV reference models with comparable ICE models for passenger cars in the B to SUV-D segments, excluding top-management cars. Cost is expressed in euros per kilometre over 48 months and 120,000 km, which equals 30,000 km a year. This is a leasing-fleet cost, not a private-buyer cost: it reflects fleet tax treatment, lease residual values and high annual mileage.

Why annual mileage changes the answer

The IEA model used for its payback analysis assumes five years of ownership at 6,500 to 17,500 km a year, depending on the country, using the most popular ICE model in each market against an equivalent BEV, with ICE fuel economy of 4.8 to 8.6 L/100 km and BEV consumption of 0.15 to 0.20 kWh/km, and without subsidies. The IEA says the electricity-to-oil price ratio that makes EVs competitive is usually between 1 and 2, and that higher-mileage countries reach competitiveness at higher ratios because upfront costs are spread over more kilometres. A 30,000 km fleet therefore favours BEVs more than a typical private driver would.

What is not in the numbers

Neither source reports private-buyer cost per kilometre for each country. NMSC has not estimated one. Readers who need it should treat the figures here as a fleet benchmark and note the mileage gap above.

Country Cost Matrix: BEV vs ICE per Kilometre

Table 1 shows the ten countries with the widest BEV advantage, out of 29 in the dataset. The remaining countries are available through "Access for more", which opens the Project Dataset Explorer at the end of this page. Gap is (ICE − BEV) ÷ ICE, calculated by NMSC from the rounded figures Ayvens publishes. Because the inputs are rounded to the cent, a 0.01 €/km difference (Germany, Spain and Sweden) is within rounding noise and is best read as parity.

Table 1. BEV vs ICE cost per km, 48 months / 120,000 km, Q4 2025 benchmark (€ per km), ten widest BEV advantages. Green bars favour BEV.

Source: Ayvens European Mobility Guide, May 2026, country pages; NMSC analysis. Norway is excluded because Ayvens publishes no ICE cost (BEV: €0.44 per km).
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/ev-vs-petrol-total-cost-by-country-2026

Regional Patterns

Grouping the 29 countries shows how stark the divide is. Table 2 averages the country figures without weighting by market size, so it describes a typical country, not the typical European driver.

Table 2. Average cost per km by region, Q4 2025 benchmark (€ per km, unweighted).

NMSC analysis of Ayvens European Mobility Guide, May 2026
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/ev-vs-petrol-total-cost-by-country-2026

Regional grouping used: Northern and Western: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK. Southern: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain. Central, Eastern and other: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine.

Portugal is the outlier in the Southern group. Without it, the three other Southern markets sit within 8% of parity (Greece 0%, Spain 3%, Italy 8%), which fits Ayvens' remark that Italy and Spain trail the North and West on EV readiness.

Where Battery EVs Are Cheaper

Portugal: the widest gap in the dataset

Portugal's BEV cost of €0.25 per km is the lowest of any country, against an ICE figure of €0.39. Ayvens gives it 25 of 30 on TCO. BEVs receive a 100% reduction on the ISV registration tax, and the guide notes a €4,000 purchase subsidy for vehicles up to €38,500 that has already run out of funds. Grid carbon intensity is 103 g CO2e per kWh, with 85% low-carbon supply.

Denmark: high ICE cost, rising BEV tax

Denmark has the highest ICE cost per km in the table (€0.52) against €0.42 for a BEV. Ayvens scores its taxation and regulation pillar at 0 of 20. BEVs paid 40% of the calculated registration tax through 2025, and the share rises toward 80% by 2030; the guide gives both a 2026 freeze at 40% and 8-point annual increases from 2026, so NMSC does not state the 2026 rate. A fixed deduction of DKK 165,000 for BEVs still applies, and no direct national purchase subsidy is available in 2026. Denmark shows that a BEV can lead on running cost while the policy trend turns less favourable.

France and Belgium: tax tightening on both sides

France shows BEV €0.33 against ICE €0.41. From 1 July 2026 BEVs also face a vehicle-weight malus, with a 600 kg relief, and the weight threshold for other cars has fallen to 1,500 kg from 1,600 kg. Company-car benefit-in-kind for cars made available after 1 February 2025 carries a 70% rebate for BEVs, but only for "eco-scored" cars, which Ayvens links to European production. Belgium (BEV €0.33, ICE €0.40) ended the full BEV exemption from registration and road tax for cars registered from 2026, while keeping only zero-emission cars 100% deductible; non-zero-emission cars ordered from 2026 are no longer deductible.

United Kingdom, Austria, Luxembourg

The UK shows BEV €0.28 against ICE €0.32. BEV company-car benefit-in-kind is 4% from April 2026, rising in later years, 100% first-year allowances run to 31 March 2027, and a new Electric Car Grant has applied since July 2025 for qualifying EVs under £37,000. A mileage-based eVED of 3p per mile for BEVs is planned from April 2028. Austria (BEV €0.41, ICE €0.49) exempts private use of zero-emission company cars from benefit-in-kind, while Luxembourg (BEV €0.32, ICE €0.38) taxes BEV company cars at 0.5% to 0.6% against 2% for ICE and offers a €6,000 grant for efficient BEVs, extended to 30 June 2030.

Markets Near Parity

Germany, Spain, Sweden, Greece: a 0.01 €/km question

Germany, Spain and Sweden each show BEV €0.35 against ICE €0.36, and Greece shows €0.37 for both. Germany's incentives are targeted: BEV motor-vehicle-tax exemption for up to ten years for cars first registered by the end of 2030, a 0.25% benefit-in-kind rule for BEVs up to €100,000, and, since 1 January 2026, a €3,000 to €6,000 grant for private buyers only. Ayvens scores German charging infrastructure at 10 of 20 and grid carbon intensity at 336 g CO2e per kWh. Fleet buyers see no grant, so a tax change can flip the result.

Netherlands: a mature market where the gap narrowed

The Netherlands shows BEV €0.48 against ICE €0.50, with Ayvens noting that the BEV-ICE gap narrowed between 2024 and 2025. It also has the best charging score in the guide (20 of 20) with 10.2 charging points per 1,000 inhabitants. Purchase subsidies are gone and the BEV benefit-in-kind advantage is scheduled to end in 2028. From 2027 an annual tax equal to 12% of list price will apply to ICE company cars, charged to the employer. This offsets part of the lost BEV advantage.

Italy, Ireland, Finland, Switzerland: small, policy-dependent gaps

Italy's gap is 0.03 €/km, supported by a refinanced 2026 Ecobonus for individuals of €6,000 to €11,000 and a 10% BEV benefit-in-kind rate against 50% for other powertrains. Ireland's gap is 0.05, helped by a €3,500 SEAI grant for private buyers and VRT relief of up to €5,000. Finland's 0.04 gap relies on a benefit-in-kind reduction of €290 a month for BEVs until the end of 2029. Switzerland's 0.03 gap varies by canton, as road-tax treatment differs locally.

Where Petrol and Diesel Still Win

Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria

Poland has the widest BEV penalty among EU members (BEV €0.32 against ICE €0.25), with a grid at 566 g CO2e per kWh and 33% low-carbon supply, and 0.3 public charging points per 1,000 inhabitants. The Czech Republic (€0.34 vs €0.29) and Slovakia (€0.34 vs €0.28) also show ICE ahead despite fleet-tax advantages for BEVs: a 75% benefit-in-kind discount in the Czech Republic and a 0.5% rate against 1% for ICE in Slovakia. Romania (€0.33 vs €0.28) is a case where Ayvens reports no difference in the fiscal treatment of BEVs and ICE, and Bulgaria (€0.39 vs €0.33) offers BEV road-tax exemption and accelerated depreciation at up to 50% a year for BEVs bought from 2026.

The Baltics, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia

Lithuania (BEV €0.41, ICE €0.35) paid a bonus of €5,000 for a new BEV to individuals in 2025, with subsidies available to 31 December 2026 or until funds run out. Estonia (€0.43 vs €0.37) reports no purchase subsidies and Latvia (€0.41 vs €0.36) lists none. Hungary (€0.40 vs €0.36) does not apply registration, property or company-car tax to BEVs, and the gap remains. Croatia (€0.41 vs €0.40) and Slovenia (€0.39 vs €0.37) are close to parity. Croatia's subsidies of €2,500 to €9,000 for legal entities exclude operational leasing, and Slovenia reports that its subsidy funds are used up. Serbia (€0.46 vs €0.41) offers a €5,000 purchase subsidy.

Ukraine: the widest gap

Ukraine shows BEV €0.54 against ICE €0.37, a 46% BEV penalty, with no EV-specific legislation and no direct cash subsidies per Ayvens. It is outside the EU and is shown for completeness.

Taxes and Incentives Compared

Table 3 sets the main 2026 BEV measures from the Ayvens country pages beside each country's cost gap. It is an NMSC compilation and a reading aid, not a causal model.

Table 3. Selected BEV purchase incentives and company-car measures, 2026, with Q4 2025 cost gap.

Source: Ayvens European Mobility Guide, May 2026, country pages; NMSC analysis. Rules and subsidies may change without notice, per the guide.
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/ev-vs-petrol-total-cost-by-country-2026

What the table suggests

Fleet-tax relief for BEVs is common in countries on both sides of the divide. Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Lithuania all offer BEV tax relief and still show ICE ahead, while Austria offers no purchase subsidy and shows a 16% BEV advantage. In NMSC's reading, incentives lower BEV cost but do not by themselves overcome a low ICE cost base or a higher BEV acquisition and depreciation burden. This is an observation from 29 data points, not a tested relationship.

European regulation is still unsettled

In December 2025 the European Commission tabled an Automotive Package that proposes recalibrating the 2035 target for new-vehicle emissions from a 100% to a 90% reduction against the 2021 baseline, and a Clean Corporate Vehicles Regulation that would set mandatory national targets for large corporate fleets from 2030. Ayvens notes that none of these measures has been finally approved.

Charging infrastructure and driver confidence

Public charging points in the EU 27 plus the UK and Norway grew to more than 1.2 million by late 2025, up 20% on 2024, against a 2030 target of 2 million. Distribution is uneven, and an Ayvens and BCG study found that more than 30% of drivers remain uncertain whether home or public charging would be enough for their daily work needs. In 2025 electrified powertrains made up 60% of new passenger-car registrations in this region, BEVs 20% (up 4 points), and hybrids 33%. Norway's BEV share was about 96%.

The 2026 Fuel-Price Shock Is Not in the Benchmark

NMSC analysis: the Ayvens figures are dated Q4 2025, before the 2026 energy crisis that the IEA links to the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The direction is clear, higher fuel prices widen BEV running-cost savings, but the size of the shift in each country cannot be read from these sources.

Residential electricity rose far less over the same year: +6.1% on the world average. The IEA also reports EU electric car sales up around 30% in the first four months of 2026. Because diesel rose faster than gasoline, fleets that run mostly on diesel are likely to see larger ICE cost increases. That is an inference; the sources do not say which markets, and NMSC has not quantified it.

The IEA View: Payback and Price Gap

The IEA finds that, on 2025 prices and without subsidies, an EV pays back its higher purchase price within eight years in 11 of 27 EU countries. It puts the average EU price gap between BEVs and ICE cars at around €10,000, with about 10 affordable models starting near €25,000. Support of about €4,000 shortens a typical 7 to 10 year payback in Germany and France to 3 to 5 years.

This picture is consistent with the Ayvens map but not identical to it, because the two use different mileage, ownership length and car baskets. Ayvens' TCO scores and its published cost gaps also do not always move together: for example, France scores 17 of 30 on TCO despite a 20% gap, while the Netherlands scores 20 with a 4% gap. NMSC has not reconciled this, and uses the published cost figures rather than the scores.

Conclusion: Are EVs Cheaper to Own Than Petrol Cars in 2026?

For a leasing fleet, in about half the countries with data, yes. In Ayvens' Q4 2025 benchmark a BEV is cheaper per kilometre in 15 of 29 countries, level in Greece, and costlier in 13, and the split follows geography and EV maturity: the 15 are largely in Northern, Western and Southern Europe, and the 13 are mostly in Central and Eastern Europe. The widest BEV advantage is Portugal's 36%, and the widest EU BEV penalty is Poland's 28%.

Three limits apply. The benchmark is a fleet view at 30,000 km a year, so private drivers with lower mileage should expect a smaller advantage. It predates the 2026 fuel shock, which the IEA says raised EU EV fuel savings by 35% in April. And it shows that incentives do not explain the map on their own, since several BEV-friendly tax regimes still sit on the wrong side of parity. The practical measure for planners is not whether EVs are cheaper in general, but whether the gap in a given country is wider than the policy risk surrounding it. A refreshed edition will follow when Ayvens and GlobalPetrolPrices publish new data.

Project Dataset Explorer

Filter the underlying country-level benchmark dataset (29 countries) and the benchmark inputs and sources compiled for this report. The Excel workbook also includes a fuel-price context sheet.

29 records shown

Sources: Ayvens European Mobility Guide, May 2026 (country pages); NMSC calculations on a 48-month / 120,000 km basis. Norway is excluded because no ICE cost is published.
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/ev-vs-petrol-total-cost-by-country-2026