Agrochemicals Market Industry Update: Fertilizer Prices

Fertilizer Prices to Stay Elevated Through 2028 Amid Global Supply Disruptions 

GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colorado, U.S. — August 13, 2026 — Fertilizer prices are projected to remain above pre-conflict levels through 2028, according to a new report from CoBank's Knowledge Exchange, placing sustained pressure on the global agrochemicals market as geopolitical instability in the Middle East and tightening supply chains continue to reshape nutrient availability and input cost structures for farmers and agricultural retailers worldwide. 

The report, released by CoBank — a $139 billion cooperative bank serving rural America — identifies geopolitical disruption in the Middle East, constrained feedstock supplies, and tightening phosphate availability as the primary forces keeping fertilizer costs elevated well into 2027 and likely through 2028. The findings signal a prolonged period of market stress for the agrochemicals sector, which encompasses fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and other crop protection inputs. 

"The ripple effect of the Middle East conflict, compounded with tight supplies, will create higher fertilizer prices and complicate sourcing well into 2027 and beyond," said Jacqui Fatka, Farm Supply and Biofuels Economist at CoBank. "Availability and affordability concerns have already triggered demand destruction and deferral, making the price outlook increasingly difficult to predict." 

The Middle East plays a critical role in global fertilizer supply chains, providing over 60 million tons of fertilizers and raw materials annually, with 45 million tons shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The region accounts for 50% of globally traded sulfur and more than 30% of global urea exports — commodities now acutely vulnerable to supply disruptions. Conflict in the region has resulted in an estimated 31 ammonia plant shutdowns or direct impacts in the Middle East, while 49 plants across India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have curtailed or halted operations due to limited feedstock availability. At least 20 plants in Russia have also been damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks, further compounding global supply challenges. 

Key Highlights: 

• Phosphate markets under acute pressure: China, the world's largest phosphate producer and exporter, has banned phosphate exports through August 2026, with high sulfur prices potentially extending the restriction — further tightening global supply. 

• U.S. import exposure: Approximately 17% of U.S. Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) and Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) imports originate from the Persian Gulf, now one of the most unstable supply regions globally. 

• Farmer adaptation underway: U.S. farmers have reduced phosphate and potassium application levels by 10–15% in recent years, relying more heavily on soil testing, variable-rate application technology, and precision nutrient management to sustain yields. 

• Logistical risk ahead: If fertilizer prices remain elevated through fall 2026, more farmers may defer applications to spring, creating significant logistical challenges for ag retailers managing tight planting windows and uncertain demand. 

Analyst Insight: 

According to analysts at Next Move Strategy Consulting, the sustained elevation in fertilizer input costs represents a structural headwind for the agrochemicals sector at a time when the market is already navigating complex regulatory and environmental pressures. The global agrochemicals market was valued at USD 241.36 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 305.01 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2024 to 2030. NMSC analysts note that geopolitical supply disruptions of this scale — particularly those affecting ammonia, sulfur, and phosphate feedstocks — have the potential to compress margins across the fertilizer segment and accelerate the adoption of precision agriculture technologies as farmers seek to optimize input efficiency under cost pressure. 

Industry Outlook: 

The CoBank report underscores a fundamental vulnerability in global agrochemical supply chains: the concentration of critical feedstock production in geopolitically unstable regions. As the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt ammonia and sulfur flows, and as China's phosphate export restrictions persist, the fertilizer segment of the agrochemicals market faces a prolonged period of price volatility and supply uncertainty. 

For agricultural retailers and farm supply cooperatives, the near-term priority will be managing inventory risk and advising farmers on precision nutrient management strategies that preserve yield without excessive input expenditure. Market recovery, according to CoBank, will ultimately depend on stabilization in the Middle East, a decline in sulfur prices, and shifts in global demand patterns — none of which appear imminent in the current geopolitical environment. 

Source: CropLife 

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Prepared By: Sanyukta Deb