China's Live Commerce Rules Reset a Global Market

SAMR Order No. 117 Forces Compliance Overhaul as Live Commerce Scales Toward Mainstream Retail

On 1 February 2026, China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) brought into force the Supervision and Management Measures for Live Streaming E-commerce (Order No. 117), establishing the world's most comprehensive regulatory framework governing live-streamed retail. The measures—adopted on 18 December 2025 following a public consultation that ran from June to July 2025—formally define live-streaming e-commerce as business activities that sell goods or provide services through websites, applications, or other means, and introduce binding content-moderation obligations on platforms and hosts. 

The intervention carries outsized global significance because China remains the structural anchor of the sector. Live-streamed commerce captures roughly 60% of China's e-commerce market, compared with approximately 5% in the United States, according to ARK Invest. With the regulatory perimeter now formalized in the format's largest market, multinational platforms, brand owners, and creators face a recalibrated compliance baseline that is expected to inform policy thinking across other jurisdictions.

The global Live Commerce Market is projected to reach USD 3.93 billion by 2030, expanding at a CAGR of 21.9% from 2025 to 2030, according to Next Move Strategy Consulting. The firm attributes this trajectory to the expansion of e-commerce platforms, rising mobile internet connectivity, and increasing smartphone penetration, while citing buffering and poor video quality as principal restraints.

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Regulatory Tightening Meets Accelerating Demand

The Chinese framework arrives as adoption accelerates in Western markets. United States livestream e-commerce sales grew nearly 50% in 2025 to USD 14.64 billion, with the buyer base expanding 21.5% year-over-year, according to an EMARKETER forecast. TikTok Shop accounted for nearly 20% of US social commerce in 2025, while specialized platform Whatnot expected sales to exceed USD 6 billion in 2025, the company told the US Chamber of Commerce. 

The structural divergence between China and Western markets remains pronounced. In China, online live-streaming users reached 777 million by June 2024, accounting for 70.6% of the country's internet population, according to the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC). The country's online shopping user base reached 974 million by December 2024, an increase of 59.47 million from the prior year. 

Conversion Economics and Platform Concentration

The format's commercial appeal rests on conversion performance. Live shopping demonstrates conversion rates of between 9% and 30%, compared with 2% to 3% for standard e-commerce platforms, according to Firework. However, reach in Western markets remains constrained: only 21.7% of US digital buyers purchased via livestream in 2025, while 43% of US adults reported they had not used and were not interested in livestream shopping, per an EMARKETER and Bizrate Insights survey. 

The NMSC analysis identifies Asia-Pacific as the dominant regional contributor and expected leader throughout the forecast period, supported by elevated social-platform engagement and sustained digital-infrastructure investment. The firm's competitive landscape profiles Taobao Live (Alibaba Group), TikTok Shop, Amazon Live, eBay Live, TalkShopLive, HSN (QVC), Bambuser AB, and Firework, among others.

Comparative Market Indicators

Table 1. Selected Live Commerce Performance Indicators (External Sources)

Units: As specified per row | Source: EMARKETER (2026); ARK Invest (2025)

Note: Values reflect figures reported by cited sources at publication and may be revised. 

Table 2. China Digital Adoption Base Supporting Live Commerce (CNNIC)

Units: Users in millions; share in percent | Source: China Internet Network Information Center

Note: CNNIC figures are official national statistics. 

Regulatory Trajectory and Outlook

Order No. 117 signals a maturation phase in which content moderation, host accountability, and platform liability become structural cost considerations rather than optional safeguards. For multinational operators, the Chinese framework offers an early template for the compliance architecture likely to accompany the format's expansion into regulated Western retail channels, where attribution complexity, platform dependency, and discount-driven economics already temper near-term ROI expectations.

The Bottom Line

The enforcement of China's Order No. 117 marks an inflection point in the live commerce market's evolution from high-growth experiment to regulated retail channel. With live-streamed sales representing roughly 60% of China's e-commerce activity and US sales advancing nearly 50% in 2025 to USD 14.64 billion, the structural growth case remains intact, supported by superior conversion economics and a deep digital-adoption base. For investors and operators, the strategic opportunity lies in scaling compliant, creator-led commerce infrastructure ahead of broader Western adoption. Yet material risks persist: regulatory uncertainty surrounding key platforms, constrained US consumer interest, attribution and ROI-measurement challenges, and dependence on aggressive discounting. The NMSC forecast of a 21.9% CAGR to USD 3.93 billion by 2030 underscores durable momentum, but disciplined capital allocation, robust governance, and platform diversification will distinguish sustainable participants from speculative entrants in an increasingly supervised marketplace.

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