Oil Steady Ahead of Inventory Data, US-Russia Talks

Industry Insights from Next Move Strategy Consulting

Oil prices remained steady on Wednesday as investors awaited clearer signals from U.S. inventory data, while also keeping an eye on the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At 0330 GMT, Brent crude futures remained steady at $66.12 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 6 cents to $63.11. Both contracts had closed lower on Tuesday.

U.S. Crude and Fuel Inventories Update

• Crude oil inventories in the U.S., the largest oil consumer globally, increased by 1.52 million barrels last week.

• This data was reported on Tuesday by market sources referencing figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• Gasoline inventories experienced a decline during the same period.

• Distillate inventories saw a slight increase.

Market Expectations and Production Outlook

According to analysts surveyed by Reuters, the upcoming EIA report is anticipated to show a decline of around 300,000 barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week. On Tuesday, both OPEC and the EIA released forecasts indicating higher oil production for this year, a factor that has put downward pressure on prices. However, they also project that U.S. output, currently the highest in the world, will decline in 2026, while other regions are expected to boost their oil and gas production.

U.S. Production Peak and Global Demand Forecast

The EIA’s latest monthly report projects U.S. crude production to reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by improved well productivity. However, it anticipates a decline in 2026 due to lower oil prices. Meanwhile,OPEC’s monthly report forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 100,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate, while keeping its 2025 demand outlook unchanged.

White House Lowers Ceasefire Expectations

On Tuesday, the White House downplayed hopes for a swift Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, potentially prompting investors to reassess the likelihood of an early end to the conflict and any relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil supplies, which have been underpinning prices.

Conclusion

In summary, oil markets are currently in a holding pattern as traders weigh mixed signals from U.S. inventory data, global production forecasts, and geopolitical developments. While near-term prices remain steady, the combination of higher production outlooks from OPEC and the EIA, expectations of a modest inventory draw, and persistent geopolitical tensions suggests that volatility could return in the coming weeks. The market’s direction will likely hinge on the upcoming EIA data release and any shifts in U.S.–Russia relations, both of which could influence supply dynamics and investor sentiment.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/

Prepared by: Next Move Strategy Consulting