US Solar Forecast Cut Amid Trump Policy Impact on Growth

Industry Insights from Next Move Strategy Consulting

According to a report released Monday by a leading trade group, the U.S. solar industry could see 27% less capacity added between 2026 and 2030 compared to projections made before President Donald Trump’s tax law, which scaled back subsidies for these projects.

Forecast on U.S. Solar Industry Outlook

The projection from the Solar Energy Industries Association, the leading U.S. trade group, along with energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, comes in response to actions by the Trump administration that have hindered the growth of clean energy industries, a central pillar of former President Joe Biden’s climate agenda.

SEIA President Criticizes Impact of Trump Administration Policies

Abigail Ross Hopper, President and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association, stated that the Trump administration’s policies are actively restricting the potential of the solar sector, which she described as a powerful driver of American economic growth. She emphasized that rather than allowing the industry to expand and generate investment opportunities, the administration’s actions are curbing progress, leading to higher energy costs for both households and businesses. Hopper further warned that these policy decisions are also putting the long-term stability and reliability of the nation’s electric grid at risk.

Strong Growth Trends in U.S. Solar and Storage Sector in 2025

In the first half of 2025, solar and energy storage technologies together represented a dominant share of new electricity generation capacity across the United States, accounting for an impressive 82% of all additions. At the same time, domestic solar manufacturing has continued to expand significantly, with solar module production capacity increasing by 13 gigawatts during this period, bringing the nation’s total capacity to 55 gigawatts. Notably, the deployment of solar capacity in 2025 has been concentrated in several states carried by President Trump in the last election, including major growth markets such as Texas, Indiana, and Florida, which together account for more than three-quarters of total installations.

Utility-scale solar costs rose by 4%, residential costs climbed 2% and commercial system costs rose 10% during the second quarter, due to import tariffs and higher permitting and other overhead costs.

Conclusion:

This development positively impacts the solar photovoltaic market by reinforcing investor confidence, driving policy and financial support, and accelerating adoption of clean energy technologies. It highlights solar PV as a critical enabler of the global energy transition, boosting demand across residential, commercial, and utility-scale projects. Ultimately, the news strengthens the market outlook by positioning solar as a resilient and scalable solution for sustainable power generation.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/ 

Prepared by: Next Move Strategy Consulting