Is the Rail Freight Transport Market Accelerating in 2025?

Why Is Kazakhstan-China Rail Freight Booming?

Cross-border rail connections are vital for efficient freight movement. In January–April 2025, Kazakhstan–China rail freight transport volume increased by 13% year-over-year, totaling 11.4 million tonnes. Kazakhstan–China rail freight volume reached a record 32 million tonnes in 2024, continuing its strong upward trend, with exports since 2020 reaching 13.7 million tonnes (25% increase).

Agricultural exports, particularly grains and processed products, remain major contributors to freight growth, including 1.8 million tonnes of grain and 1.5 million tonnes of processed products. Flour and milled goods rose 30% to 600 thousand tonnes, while compound feed surged fivefold to 900 thousand tonnes.

How Are Infrastructure Projects Fueling Rail Freight Capacity?

Infrastructure forms the backbone of rail freight efficiency. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) repaired over 1,400 km of tracks in 2024 and is constructing approximately 1,000 km of new lines, including Dostyk–Moiynty and Darbaza–Maktaaral sections.

The new Xi’an Dry Port terminal is expected to significantly increase transit volumes along the Trans-Caspian route. A third border crossing with China is under construction to ease congestion.

In India, the railway budget for FY25-26 allocates Rs. 2.65 lakh crore, matching the prior year, with Rs. 10,000 crore extra for modernization, totaling Rs. 2.75 lakh crore in capital expenditure. Targets include 100% electrification and 7,000 km of high-speed rail by 2047.

For the Rail Freight Transport Market, these projects are expected to substantially enhance corridor throughput and capacity in the coming years. Our analysis indicates this creates value in multimodal integration, where rail complements sea and road, reducing carbon emissions and appealing to sustainability-focused shippers.

Which Companies Are Capitalizing on Rail Freight Expansion?

Market players in construction, financing, and rolling stock are seeing stock momentum tied to railway projects.

• Ircon International Limited: Market cap Rs. 17,752 crores; expertise in Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC) for railways and electrification.

• Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL): Market cap Rs. 85,402.4 crores; handles doubling, gauge conversion, and electrification.

• Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC): Market cap Rs. 1.8 lakh crores; finances asset leasing to Indian Railways.

• Texmaco Rail & Engineering Limited: Market cap Rs. 6,521.3 crores; produces freight cars and EPC for tracks.

• Titagarh Rail Systems Limited: Market cap Rs. 12,293 crores; manufactures wagons and coaches.

• Jupiter Wagons Limited: Market cap Rs. 17,922.3 crores; focuses on wagons and components.

• Other Notable Players include:

• BNSF Railway

• Union Pacific

• Canadian National Railway

• CSX Corporation

• Deutsche Bahn

Stocks surged 5–13% on a recent trading day, reflecting investor confidence in freight-related orders.

What Does This Mean for the Overall Rail Freight Transport Market?

Integrating Kazakhstan's 13% short-term growth and India's Rs. 2.75 lakh crore commitment reveals a resilient market. The expansion of agricultural exports and new infrastructure projects, such as a third China border crossing, are addressing key capacity challenges.

This impacts the market by:

• Boosting trade volumes in Eurasia-India corridors.

• Encouraging private participation via stocks and EPC.

• Promoting sustainable freight shifts from road to rail.

Analysts forecast that rail freight’s share in regional logistics could rise significantly by 2030, supported by cost efficiencies and policy initiatives.

Next Steps: Actionable Takeaways for Stakeholders

• Monitor Cross-Border Volumes: Track monthly Kazakhstan-China data via official reports to forecast commodity flows.

• Evaluate Investment in EPC Firms: Review Ircon, RVNL, and wagon makers for portfolios aligned with 2025 capex.

• Assess Infrastructure Risks: Prioritize projects like TITR for multimodal strategies in supply chain planning.

• Explore Sustainability Angles: Leverage electrification targets to integrate green rail solutions in operations.

• Consult Experts: Engage market analysts for customized insights on regional freight trends.

Conclusion:

The Rail Freight Transport Market in 2025 is on a strong growth trajectory, driven by major infrastructure investments, cross-border trade expansion, and sustainability-focused policies. Kazakhstan’s rising freight volumes and India’s record railway budget underscore a global shift toward efficient, electrified, and multimodal logistics. With ongoing network modernization and active participation from leading rail and EPC companies, the market is well-positioned to accelerate in capacity, connectivity, and competitiveness in the coming years.