6G IoT Faces Repeat of 5G's Connectivity Setback

6G Risks Repeating 5G's IoT Failure as Module Costs and Slow Standalone Rollout Persist 

LONDON, United Kingdom — June 25, 2026 — Industry analysts and equipment vendors warned this week that sixth-generation (6G) mobile technology risks repeating the underwhelming Internet of Things (IoT) performance that characterized the 5G era, citing persistent high module prices, patchy network coverage and a proliferation of competing narrowband standards. The caution matters because IoT was promoted as a central pillar of cellular's expansion into industrial and machine connectivity, yet adoption has consistently trailed expectations as the industry begins shaping the 6G roadmap. 

Main Development 

According to Light Reading, cellular IoT connections reached approximately 4.5 billion last year, around 3 billion fewer than the roughly 7.5 billion smartphones in circulation, based on Ericsson's latest Mobility Report. Between 600 and 700 million of those connections still rely on older 2G and 3G systems. 

A key constraint is the slow rollout of 5G standalone (SA) networks, without which newer IoT standards such as RedCap cannot operate effectively. Ericsson CEO Börje Ekholm put 5G SA adoption at just 6% in Europe, 50% in the United States and 98% in China. 

Analyst firm Omdia maintains a more conservative outlook than Ericsson, projecting cellular IoT connections will not reach 5.9 billion until 2035, by which point 6G networks may have been commercially operational for several years. 

Attention in 6G is shifting toward new device categories, including smart glasses, humanoids and other "physical AI" form factors, which Ericsson describes as part of an emerging multi-year upgrade "supercycle." 

Key Highlights: 

• Cellular IoT connections reached roughly 4.5 billion last year, about 3 billion below smartphone volumes. 

• 5G standalone adoption stands at 6% in Europe, 50% in the U.S. and 98% in China, limiting RedCap deployment. 

• Omdia does not expect cellular IoT connections to reach 5.9 billion until 2035. 

• 6G focus is shifting toward smart glasses, humanoids and connected physical AI devices. 

Analyst Insight: 

According to analysts at Next Move Strategy Consulting, the global 6G Market is projected to reach USD 41.42 billion by 2030, expanding at a CAGR of 34.5% from 2024 to 2030. NMSC analysts note that rising adoption of IoT devices across healthcare, manufacturing and logistics, alongside escalating government and telecommunications investment, is expected to underpin long-term market growth, even as limited global coverage remains a near-term restraint. 

Industry Outlook: 

The early 6G narrative positions higher-value device categories — rather than traditional low-power sensors — at the center of next-generation connectivity strategies. Whether operators can convert this shift into sustainable IoT revenue will depend on accelerating standalone network deployment, lowering module costs and consolidating fragmented standards as the industry advances toward commercial 6G later this decade. 

Source: Light Reading 

Prepared By: Sanyukta Deb

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