Industries Most Exposed to Tariffs in 2026: A Data-Driven Ranking

About This Research

Tariffs reshaped U.S. imports in 2025 and 2026, but the exposure is not uniform. A 25% duty on automobiles, a 100% headline rate on patented medicines, and a 10% general tariff on most imports from 60 economies describe very different risks. This report ranks 11 industry groups by exposure to U.S. tariff measures. It combines four factors: how explicitly current measures target the group, how large its imports are, how dependent it is on foreign inputs, and how exposed it is to retaliation.

The ranking is U.S.-focused. It measures exposure to U.S. tariffs and plausible trade-policy spillovers, using U.S. Census and USITC import data, and it is not a ranking of every country's tariff exposure. The index is a relative score from 0 to 100. It is not an estimate of tariff costs, tax revenue or economic damage. The data snapshot is 12 October 2026. Historical data, current data, announced measures and NMSC analysis are labelled throughout.

Market Pulse Metrics

At-a-glance indicators, each tied to a named source, scope and date.

NMSC analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, USITC and USTR data
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/tariff-exposed-industries-ranked

Executive Summary

• Autos lead, with four Very High peers. Automotive vehicles and parts score 97, ahead of electronics and semiconductors (90), steel, aluminum, copper and metal-intensive products (89), patented pharmaceuticals (86) and consumer goods, apparel and footwear (80). Wood products (59) and medical devices (57) rank lowest.
• The ranking is robust at both ends. Under five different factor weightings, autos rank first every time, and wood products and medical devices stay in 10th and 11th place. The top five contain the same groups in four of the five weightings. Only a weighting that gives retaliation exposure 35% swaps patented pharmaceuticals out for agriculture.
• The tariff regime changed in 2026. The Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs on 20 February 2026. A 10% Section 122 surcharge ran from 24 February to 24 July, and since 24 July a Section 301 forced-labor tariff of 10% or 12.5% applies to most imports from 60 economies. Section 232 goods are exempt from it, so sector rankings now turn on the Section 232 actions.
• Imports do not follow the exposure ranking. In January to August 2026, semiconductor imports rose 84.0% and computers 94.8%, while pharmaceutical-preparation imports fell 44.1% and automotive imports fell 4.4%. The sources do not explain the differences.

Why this matters: an exposure rank is a screen for where to look, not a forecast of what imports or prices will do. For importers, lenders and investors the practical questions are which product lines and annexes a measure covers, and which exemptions and company-level deals apply. Four of the factor scores for consumer goods, agriculture, chemicals and energy were set when the invalidated tariffs were treated as current; NMSC keeps them unchanged and flags them for review.

What Changed: The 2026 U.S. Tariff Regime

The current tariff structure has three layers. The first is a general, country-based layer, which was replaced in 2026. The second is a set of high-rate Section 232 measures aimed at specific products. The third is a group of open Section 232 investigations with no duties yet.

The general layer: from IEEPA to Section 301

The Supreme Court ruled on 20 February 2026 that the IEEPA tariffs, including the country-specific reciprocal tariffs set by Executive Order 14257, were not authorized. Collection of those tariffs stopped on 24 February. A Section 122 surcharge of 10% applied from 24 February until it expired on 24 July. On 23 July, the U.S. Trade Representative finalized a Section 301 action against 60 economies for failing to ban imports made with forced labor. It adds 10% for 19 economies and 12.5% for 41 on most imports, effective 24 July. The EU and Taiwan are at 10% and Japan, Korea and Switzerland at 12.5%, each net of the normal duty rate. USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico are exempt. The 60 economies account for 99.4% of U.S. imports by value.

Sector measures: high rates on listed products

Section 232 articles and parts are exempt from the Section 301 action, so a covered product pays the Section 232 rate instead of both. Table 1 summarizes the measures behind the ranking.

Table 1. U.S. tariff measures behind the ranking, as of 12 October 2026.

NMSC analysis of USTR, White House proclamations and Section 232 trackers
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/tariff-exposed-industries-ranked

What this means for the index

The Section 301 layer is broad but low-rate, while the Section 232 measures are narrow but high-rate. The index weights policy specificity at 35%, so it rewards explicit sector measures: autos, metals, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals receive policy scores of 4 or 5. The rates apply to listed products, not whole sectors, so a sector label never means every product in the sector pays the same rate. Rows for drones and polysilicon rely on secondary sources, and the investigation row is a status report, not a measure.

How the Exposure Index Is Built

Each industry group receives a rating from 1 (low) to 5 (very high) on four factors. The composite index is 20 times the weighted sum of the four ratings, giving a score from 20 to 100. Table 2 sets out the factors and weights.

Table 2. Index factors, weights and scoring anchors.

NMSC analysis; factor scores are analyst ratings tied to the evidence notes in the dataset
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/tariff-exposed-industries-ranked

Bands

NMSC groups the index into four bands: Very High (80 and above), High (70 to 79), Elevated (60 to 69) and Moderate (below 60). The thresholds are applied consistently in the dataset.

Limits of the index

The factor ratings are analyst judgments, and the weights are editorial choices. Import values must not be multiplied by headline rates and read as economic damage or government revenue, because that ignores exemptions, origin rules, pass-through, substitution and product-level coverage. Census end-use data run through 2025 and August 2026 but use a different classification from the USITC sector series, so the two are shown as separate proxies and never added.

Corrections made during verification

NMSC rechecked the inputs against the source publications. Two import-scale ratings were lowered from 3 to 2, for wood products and medical devices, because their own cited import values ($54.6B and $65.8B) fall in the $25B to $74B bracket that the anchors assign a 2. That moved both groups from the Elevated to the Moderate band without changing their rank. The pharmaceutical import figure was also corrected to $287.5B, because an earlier figure of $119.2B was the export value.

Exposure Ranking: 11 Industry Groups

Table 3 ranks the groups on the composite index. The index is shown with the four factor ratings, so a reader can see what drives each score.

Table 3. Tariff exposure index and factor ratings (1 to 5) for 11 industry groups, 12 October 2026 snapshot.

NMSC analysis of USITC, Census Bureau and presidential proclamation data
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/tariff-exposed-industries-ranked

Reading the ranking

The top five are separated from the rest by a clear step. Five groups score 80 or above, and the sixth, industrial machinery, scores 77. Within the top five the steps are small: 97, 90, 89, 86 and 80. Autos are the only group to score 5 on three factors (policy, import scale and foreign inputs). Consumer goods reach the Very High band mainly on foreign-input dependence (5) and retaliation exposure (4), not on explicit measures, since their policy rating is 4 under the general layer. The Moderate band holds the two groups with the smallest import footprints in the dataset and the narrowest product-specific evidence.

How Robust Is the Ranking?

Because the weights are editorial choices, NMSC tested the ranking under four alternative weightings, keeping the same factor ratings. Table 4 shows each group's rank under the base case and the alternatives: equal weights, a policy-heavy set (50% on policy), a structural set (35% each on import scale and foreign dependence) and a retaliation-aware set (35% on retaliation exposure).

Table 4. Rank by industry group under five weightings (1 = most exposed).

NMSC sensitivity analysis of the exposure index; weights are listed in the dataset
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/tariff-exposed-industries-ranked

What the test shows

The ends of the ranking do not move. Autos rank first under all five weightings, and wood products and medical devices occupy 10th and 11th place in every set. The top five hold the same five groups in four of the five weightings. The exception is the retaliation-aware set, where agriculture (index 78) moves up to 5th and patented pharmaceuticals (75) fall to 6th.

The middle is more sensitive. Agriculture ranges from 5th to 9th, the widest spread, because it has the highest retaliation rating (5) but only a moderate policy rating (3). Patented pharmaceuticals range from 3rd to 6th: the policy-heavy set lifts them to 3rd (index 90) and the retaliation-aware set drops them to 6th, because their retaliation rating is low (2). Consumer goods score exactly 80 under all five weightings, since their four ratings average 4.0. NMSC reads this as strong evidence for the ordering of the extremes and weaker evidence for the ordering of agriculture, pharmaceuticals and energy.

Very High Exposure: Autos, Electronics, Metals, Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Goods

Automotive vehicles and parts (index 97)

Autos combine explicit measures with a large import base. A 25% Section 232 tariff applies to covered automobiles (from 3 April 2025) and parts (by 3 May 2025), and a separate 25% rate covers medium and heavy-duty trucks and parts, with a 10% rate for buses. The USITC transportation-equipment sector imported $595.0B in 2024, 18.2% of all general imports and up 56.3% since 2020. Census data show that automotive vehicles, parts and engines imports were $422.0B in 2025, down 10.8% from $473.3B in 2024, and $276.6B in January to August 2026, down 4.4% on the same months of 2025.

Two cautions apply. The 25% rate is not universal: product lists, USMCA qualification and partner arrangements change treatment. And the USITC sector includes non-automotive items such as aircraft; on the Census auto-only series the import-scale rating would be 4, not 5. NMSC keeps the score of 5 as a documented judgment, and the sensitivity test shows autos stay first under every weighting.

Electronics and semiconductors (index 90)

Electronic products are the largest sector in the USITC series, at $672.2B of imports in 2024, 20.6% of the total and up 39.3% since 2020. The explicit measure is narrow: a 25% tariff, effective 15 January 2026, on a narrow set of specified advanced computing chips and derivatives, with exclusions for U.S. data-center use, research and development, repairs, startups and several other end uses. A drones tariff (secondary source) and a polysilicon measure (effective 4 December 2026) add to the policy picture.

The import data run the other way. Imports of semiconductors reached $90.5B in January to August 2026, up 84.0%, computers $255.0B (up 94.8%), computer accessories $158.5B (up 77.1%) and telecommunications equipment $111.6B (up 53.0%). The Census semiconductor line covers all chips, not just the narrow tariffed subset. A White House proclamation states that U.S.-made chips meet about 10% of demand, a figure NMSC has not independently re-verified.

Steel, aluminum, copper and metal-intensive products (index 89)

Metals carry the broadest high-rate measure in the dataset. Covered core steel, aluminum and copper products face 50%, covered derivatives 25%, certain industrial and electrical grid equipment 15% (through 2027), and specified foreign products using qualifying U.S. metal 10%. Articles with 15% or less relevant metal content by weight are generally excluded. A 1 June 2026 proclamation, effective 8 June, moved some agricultural and industrial equipment and HVAC derivatives from 25% to 15% and lowered the threshold for the 10% rate from 95% to 85% U.S. metal content.

The USITC minerals-and-metals sector imported $246.7B in 2024, up 20.7% since 2020. The Census proxies need care. Finished metal shapes imports were $105.3B in 2025 but only $20.8B in January to August 2026 against $96.5B a year earlier, so that series is too volatile to be a stable measure of metals exposure. Copper imports were $17.6B in 2025.

Patented pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (index 86)

The headline rate is the highest in the dataset: 100% on specified patented pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients, with 20% for approved onshoring plans, 15% for specified EU, Japan, Korea and Switzerland-Liechtenstein products, 10% for the UK, and a reported 0% for companies with qualifying pricing agreements through 20 January 2029. Generic drugs, including biosimilars, are excluded for now. The 2 April 2026 proclamation took effect on 31 July for listed companies and 29 September for others.

Census imports of pharmaceutical preparations were $287.5B in 2025, and $115.1B in January to August 2026 against $205.9B a year earlier, a fall of 44.1%. Most of that window precedes the implementation dates, so the data do not show the effect of the duties themselves. The proclamation also cites FDA figures that 53% of patented products distributed in the U.S. are produced abroad and that 15% of patented APIs by volume are made domestically; NMSC has not re-verified these. The broad rate overstates effective exposure for companies with 0% treatment, so the score describes the measure's design, not a company outcome.

Consumer goods, apparel and footwear (index 80)

Consumer goods are the one Very High group without an explicit sector measure. Exposure runs mainly through the Section 301 forced-labor tariff and existing China-specific duties. In the USITC series textiles and apparel imported $125.8B in 2024, a change of -1.2% since 2020, and footwear $27.3B, up 35.3%. In Census data, nonfood consumer goods imports were $800.3B in 2025, essentially flat (-0.4%) on 2024. The index reflects dependence on globally sourced assortments, supplier concentration and the limited short-term ability to relocalize low-cost goods, so it is sensitive to the general layer and to the still-unreviewed policy rating.

High and Elevated Exposure: Machinery, Agriculture, Chemicals and Energy

Industrial machinery and electrical equipment (index 77)

Machinery imports were $297.0B in 2024, 9.1% of the total and up 45.5% since 2020. Exposure is mostly indirect: the metals measures raise input and equipment costs, and certain metal-intensive industrial and grid equipment, plus eligible agricultural equipment, now receive 15% treatment. A Section 232 investigation into robotics and industrial machinery remained open with no duties imposed as of early October 2026. The 2026 import signal is mixed: other industrial machinery imports were $60.5B in January to August 2026 (up 4.9%), electric apparatus $72.8B (down 1.6%) and generators $33.4B (up 2.3%), against the surge in technology hardware.

Agriculture, food and beverages (index 71)

Agriculture has the highest retaliation rating (5) in the dataset. USITC agricultural-product imports were $233.0B in 2024, up 42.7% since 2020, and Census food, feed and beverage imports were $215.4B in 2025, little changed (-0.3%). On the export side, USDA ERS reports $171B of U.S. agricultural exports in 2025. The top five destinations (Mexico, Canada, the EU, Japan and South Korea) took 56%, and exports to China fell 66% to $8.4B. USDA notes an association with reciprocal tariffs and weaker soybean demand but does not attribute the whole fall to tariffs. Concentration signals exposure; it is not a measure of the exports that will be lost.

Chemicals, plastics and related products (index 70)

Chemicals are the third-largest USITC sector, with $466.5B of imports in 2024 (14.3% of the total, up 42.0% since 2020). No single rate applies across the basket. Exposure depends on origin, the general Section 301 duties (10% or 12.5%, subject to exclusions), product classification and any metal content in the goods. Census industrial supplies and materials imports were $698.3B in 2025, up 3.4%, a broader grouping that includes metals and energy and should not be compared like for like with the USITC figure.

Energy and critical minerals (index 67)

Energy-related products grew fastest of all USITC sectors from 2020, up 98.5%, to $249.8B in 2024 (7.6% of the total). Census data show crude oil imports of $140.0B in 2025. The 14 January 2026 Section 232 action on processed critical minerals sets no blanket tariff rate. The status of energy under the Section 301 forced-labor action was not checked at product level, and the invalidated reciprocal-tariff order had excluded energy products, so this group's policy rating is one NMSC flags for review.

Moderate Exposure: Wood Products and Medical Devices

Wood products, furniture, cabinets and vanities (index 59)

Wood measures are explicit but cover narrow product lists: 10% on specified softwood timber and lumber and 25% on specified upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities, in force since 14 October 2025. Scheduled increases to 30% and 50% on furniture and cabinets were postponed to 1 January 2027, which is an announced future plan and not a current rate. The USITC forest-products sector imported $54.6B in 2024 (1.7% of the total, up 22.6% since 2020). Census data show $7.0B of lumber and $37.8B of furniture and household goods in 2025, separate proxies that are not additive.

Medical devices and health equipment (index 57)

Current evidence for medical equipment is more product-specific than for the higher-ranked groups. Census imports of medical equipment were $65.8B in 2025 and $42.3B in January to August 2026, down 6.0%. The semiconductor measure excludes specified medical end uses and the pharmaceutical action excludes generics. A Section 232 investigation into PPE, medical consumables and medical equipment remained open with no duties imposed as of early October 2026, so this is the group where a pending decision matters most. The USITC taxonomy has no medical-device sector, so the size evidence comes from a Census commodity line within capital goods.

What Import Data Show: 2025 and 2026

U.S. goods imports reached $3,414.5B in 2025 on the Census end-use basis, up $150.6B or 4.6% on 2024. The increase was concentrated in one category.

Capital goods imports rose $166.6B (17.3%) in 2025, more than the entire net increase of $150.6B. All other categories combined fell by $16.0B, led by a $51.3B (10.8%) drop in automotive vehicles, parts and engines. In January to August 2026 the same pattern strengthened. Capital goods imports were $1,016.4B, up $285.0B or 39.0% on the same months of 2025, and four technology lines (computers, computer accessories, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment) account for $273.0B of that rise, or 95.8%.

Sector scale: where the import base sits

The USITC sector series, which runs to 2024, shows where imports are concentrated. Four sectors (electronic products, transportation equipment, chemicals and machinery) hold 62.2% of the $3,266.4B total. Table 5 shows the largest sectors with their 2020-24 change.

Table 5. U.S. general imports by USITC sector, 2024 value, share and 2020-24 change.

NMSC analysis of USITC Trade Shifts 2024 sector data
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/tariff-exposed-industries-ranked

Where Exposure and Import Behavior Diverge

Table 6 sets each ranked group beside the closest Census import line for January to August 2026. The Census lines are not identical to the industry groups, so the comparison is indicative.

Table 6. Exposure rank against the closest Census import line, January-August 2026 vs 2025.

NMSC analysis of the exposure index and U.S. Census Bureau FT-900 data
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/tariff-exposed-industries-ranked

What the comparison shows

Exposure rank does not predict import momentum. The highest-ranked group, autos, shows a 4.4% fall on top of a 10.8% fall in 2025, the only top-ranked group where imports declined in both periods. Electronics, ranked second, shows semiconductor imports up 84.0% and computers up 94.8%. Patented pharmaceuticals, ranked fourth, show a 44.1% fall, most of it before the 31 July and 29 September implementation dates. Medical equipment, ranked last, fell 6.0%, and other industrial machinery rose 4.9%.

The sources do not test why. Possible explanations include timing around announcement and effective dates, product-level exemptions, price effects and demand, but none of these is measured in the data supplied, and NMSC does not assert them. The practical implication is that the index is a screen for where policy risk is concentrated, not a forecast of trade volumes. Analysts should track annex-level coverage, company-level agreements and exclusions for each measure rather than infer import behavior from the rank.

Conclusion: Which Industries Are Most Exposed

On NMSC's index, autos (97), electronics and semiconductors (90), steel, aluminum, copper and metal-intensive products (89), patented pharmaceuticals (86) and consumer goods (80) are the most exposed to U.S. tariffs in 2026, and wood products (59) and medical devices (57) the least. The extremes are stable: autos rank first and the two moderate groups rank last under all five weightings tested. The middle of the table, agriculture and pharmaceuticals in particular, depends on how much weight retaliation and policy specificity receive.

The regime itself is still moving. The IEEPA tariffs ended on 20 February 2026 and the Section 301 forced-labor tariff has applied since 24 July, with Section 232 goods exempt. Announced changes include the polysilicon measure from 4 December 2026 and the postponed wood and furniture increases from 1 January 2027. The Section 232 investigations into robotics and industrial machinery, PPE and medical equipment, and chipmaking equipment remain open. Four factor ratings (consumer goods, agriculture, chemicals and energy) predate the new general layer and should be reviewed against it. The index will be refreshed as proclamations, annexes and Census data are updated.

Project Dataset Explorer

Filter the underlying exposure ranking dataset (11 industry groups) and the USITC sector import dataset (12 sectors) compiled for this report. The Excel workbook also includes the sensitivity test, 2025 and 2026 Census data, the tariff measures table and the source register.

11 records shown

NMSC analysis of USITC, Census Bureau and presidential proclamation data; Excel workbook: tariff-exposed-industries-ranked-dataset.xlsx
https://www.nextmsc.com/industry-deep-dive/tariff-exposed-industries-ranked