Recession specials return as consumer sentiment weakens

Industry Insights from Next Move Strategy Consulting

With concerns about a slowing economy resurfacing, some businesses are reviving what were once known as “recession specials.”

A quick Google search of the term pulls up references from nearly two decades ago during the Great Recession. For example, a 2008 Grub Street feature titled “Recession Specials: Your Definitive Guide” and a 2009 New York Times article highlight how restaurants across New York introduced budget-friendly meal deals as a means of survival.

Now in 2025, a new wave of establishments is once again signaling caution, rolling out similar offerings that point to growing unease about a potential downturn.

Businesses Tap into Rising Recession Fears

Concerns over a potential recession intensified this spring after President Donald Trump introduced a new round of tariffs in early April. The phrase “recession indicator” quickly gained traction on social media, often used humorously to measure the likelihood of an economic slowdown.

Now, businesses are picking up on the trend. In Brooklyn, New York, for example, coffee shop Clever Blend is promoting a $6 gelato-and-espresso combo as its own playful take on a “recession special.”

Small Businesses Respond to Waning Consumer Confidence

The move by small businesses to embrace “recession specials” may reflect a broader reaction to weakening consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index registered 58.6 in August, slipping from 61.7 in July and marking a 13.7% year-over-year decline.

According to Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's surveys of consumers, this downturn in sentiment is largely being driven by mounting concerns over trade policy.

Consumers Brace for Economic Slowdown

Consumer sentiment data shows a clear trend: people are preparing for an economic slowdown. They’re not only anticipating worsening inflation but also expecting overall business conditions to decline. According to Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s surveys of consumers, many also foresee weaker labor markets and higher unemployment rates. The steps businesses are taking, she suggested, may be a direct response to these expectations.

Hsu noted that diminishing confidence and uncertainty about income stability will likely result in reduced consumer spending. She added that this outlook is shared broadly across generations. “Young people are feeling just as negative about the economy as older groups — and in some months, even more so. Across age groups, there’s agreement that the economy’s trajectory has turned downward,” she explained.

Source: CNBC

Prepared by: Next Move Strategy Consulting