China's $900B Live Commerce Market Nears US E-Commerce Scale

NielsenIQ Report: China's $900B Live-Commerce Market Now Rivals the Entire US E-Commerce Sector 

CHICAGO, United States — July 17, 2026 — China's live commerce market reached approximately $900 billion in 2025, approaching the scale of the entire United States e-commerce sector, according to a new global intelligence report released by NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) on Thursday. The findings, published in NIQ's report The Commerce Revolution: Where East Meets West, signal a fundamental realignment of global retail power — with Asia-Pacific now accounting for nearly 55% of all global e-commerce revenue and Western markets still lagging significantly in live and social commerce adoption. 

Main Development 

The NIQ report draws on proprietary consumer data, retail pulse analytics, and third-party sources including McKinsey, Morgan Stanley, and Adobe to map the divergence — and emerging convergence — between Eastern and Western commerce models. 

China's dominance in live commerce is underscored by the scale of its infrastructure: approximately 10,000 dark stores now enable 30-minutes-or-less delivery at national scale, while quick commerce accounts for roughly 80% of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) online sales in India. These formats, pioneered and scaled across Asia, are now beginning to penetrate Western retail ecosystems — albeit at a considerably slower pace. 

By contrast, 68% of consumers in North America and 67% in Europe have never purchased a product through social media, and approximately two-thirds have never used quick commerce services. Meanwhile, 59% of Asia-Pacific consumers already transact through social platforms as a routine behavior. 

Artificial intelligence is identified in the report as the central accelerant driving convergence between the two models — powering product discovery and personalization in the East, while enabling pricing optimization, audience targeting, and measurement in the West. 

"What's happening in Asia isn't a threat to Western retail, it's a preview," said Emilie Darolles, President Western Europe, NielsenIQ. "Live shopping, social commerce and instant delivery aren't 'emerging' channels; in Asia they're simply how people shop, and European consumers are already moving the same way. The brands that lead the next decade will read the East as a roadmap and act on it now, while the opportunity is still wide open." 

Global retail media spend reached $184 billion in 2025 across more than 270 networks, with the United States market projected to reach $107.6 billion in 2026 alone — though nearly half of brands surveyed reported their measurement capabilities as only "somewhat effective" or not effective at all. 

Key Highlights: 

• China's live-commerce market was valued at approximately $900 billion in 2025, approaching the scale of the entire US e-commerce market, per NIQ market data cited in the report. 

• APAC accounts for nearly 55% of all global e-commerce revenue in 2025, cementing its position as the world's dominant digital retail region. 

• China's social-commerce market alone is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030, up from approximately $500 billion currently, according to market projections cited in the NIQ report. 

• Global retail media spend reached $184 billion in 2025 across 270+ networks, with the US market forecast at $107.6 billion in 2026, yet measurement effectiveness remains a critical gap for nearly half of brands. 

Analyst Insight: 

According to analysts at Next Move Strategy Consulting, the global Live Commerce Market is projected to reach USD 3.93 billion by 2030, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.9% from 2025 to 2030. NMSC analysts note that the accelerating convergence of AI-driven personalization, social media integration, and real-time transactional infrastructure is reshaping the live commerce value chain globally — with Western markets representing the most significant untapped growth opportunity over the forecast period. The NIQ findings reinforce NMSC's position that brands and retailers which continue to treat live and social commerce as peripheral channels rather than primary revenue engines will face structural competitive disadvantage as consumer behavior normalizes around these formats. 

Industry Outlook: 

The NIQ report's findings mark a pivotal moment for the global live commerce sector. As Eastern commerce formats — live shopping, social commerce, ultra-fast delivery, and super-app ecosystems — migrate westward, the competitive imperative for brands and retailers is shifting from channel management to system orchestration: integrating data, media, and fulfillment into a continuously optimizing commerce engine. With China's social-commerce market on a trajectory toward $1.8 trillion by 2030 and Western adoption still in early stages, the structural growth runway for the global live commerce industry remains substantial. Platforms, brands, and technology providers that invest now in live commerce infrastructure and AI-powered consumer engagement capabilities are positioned to capture disproportionate share of the next decade's retail growth. 

Source: NIQ

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Prepared By: Sanyukta Deb